Bareksa.com - The U.S. weather forecaster maintained its outlook for the El Nino weather phenomenon in its monthly update on Thursday, pegging the chances of the weather pattern striking during the Northern Hemisphere summer at 70 percent.

The agency downplayed the likelihood of a strong El Nino, which can wreak havoc on crops, predicting it will peak at "weak-to-moderate" strength during the late fall and early winter and last until spring of 2015.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology this week said Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are at levels associated with a weak El Nino, but the threshold for the weather event has not yet been breached. It indicates that El Nino is likely to develop by the Southern Hemisphere spring.

El Nino, a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, can trigger both floods and drought around the globe.

Below are some key commodities that could be affected by its return.

GRAINS, OILSEEDS, LIVESTOCK

El Nino could bring dry weather to Australia, which is already struggling with a drought, and it could also curb its wheat, sugar and cotton production.

An El Nino episode usually results in below-average rainfall in main palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia, cutting yields and pushing up global prices.

It could also worsen drought conditions in Thailand, a leading rice exporter.

El Nino would bring milder-than-normal temperatures to the U.S. Midwest. Iowa and Minnesota would benefit from the event's tendency for wetter-than-normal summers as the western Corn Belt recovers from a drought.

But excessive rains on the saturated soils of the eastern Corn Belt could be troublesome after an overly snowy winter. Drought-hit California, a major dairy and wine grape state, could see above-normal rainfall.

In China, El Nino could bring more rain south of the Yellow River and cause flooding in major rice and cotton growing regions.

Lower-than-normal temperatures could occur in China's top corn and soy areas in the northeast, leading to frost damage and lower grain output.

A strong El Nino in India, the world's No. 2 rice producer, would trigger lower production of summer crops such as rice, sugarcane and oilseeds.

In 2009, El Nino led to India's worst drought in nearly four decades, which helped push global sugar prices to their highest in around 30 years.

Previous El Nino episodes caused severe dry spells in the Philippines. A rice shortfall due to typhoons and drought connected to El Nino in 2010 prompted record imports of the staple.

SOFT COMMODITIES

A returning El Nino could cut output in main cocoa producers Ivory Coast, Ghana and Indonesia. Expectations of a second straight global market deficit in 2014 sent prices to more than two-year highs earlier this year.

Erratic weather could affect the development of coffee cherries and cocoa pods. In Indonesia, the world's third-largest cocoa producer, El Nino usually means extremely dry weather. Major coffee producer Vietnam could also suffer.

El Nino usually brings warmer winters to No. 1 coffee producer Brazil, reducing the risk of coffee frost. But heavy rains would crimp production.

Drier weather could also counter moisture-loving roya or leaf rust fungus that is ravaging coffee plantations in Central America. (Source : Reuters)