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Copper up, eyes second monthly rise on China hopes

Bareksa01 Juli 2014
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Copper up, eyes second monthly rise on China hopes
An employee unloads copper at a factory in Nantong, Jiangsu province (REUTERS/China Daily)

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at $7,017 a tonne from $6,945 at the close on Friday.

Bareksa.com - Copper rose on Monday, notching up a second month of gains on tight supply and hopes of solid demand from China and an improving U.S. economy, but gains were capped by investors' worries about the effect of high oil prices on the global economy.

China purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for manufacturing and services are expected to confirm on Tuesday that the world's second-largest economy is stabilising thanks to Beijing's measures to shore up growth.

Earlier, local China media said the country's banking regulator was relaxing the rules for calculating banks' loan-to-deposit ratios in a bid to release more cash into the system to support the real economy.

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Investors are also betting on a rebound in the United States, with the non-farm payrolls on Thursday expected to show 213,000 jobs were added in June, marking a fifth straight month of gains above 200,000.

"After a very weak first quarter, the U.S. economy is gaining steam and so is the Chinese economy. (Also) the availability of copper has been very low. I think we can test $7,300 over the next three months," said Gianclaudio Torlizzi, partner at metals consultancy T-Commodity.

He was less bullish on the direction of copper prices in the near term, however: "The price now has to discount a potential oil spike, so in (the) following days the market will test support between $6,700 and $6,800," said Torlizzi.

A Sunni insurgency in northern Iraq has driven oil prices as high as $115 a barrel in the past month and is raising worries about global growth. Some of last week's first-quarter U.S. data also underlined doubts about growth.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at $7,017 a tonne from $6,945 at the close on Friday.

Copper logged gains of about 1 percent in June, adding to May's 3 percent advance and paring the year's losses to around 5 percent.

Data showed euro zone inflation in June remained low at 0.5 percent, confirming expectations the European Central Bank will keep policy loose for longer, and underpinning demand for risky assets.

Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks climbed in Friday's weekly report, but remain near 3-1/2 year lows, while LME stocks are around 150,000 tonnes, near the smallest in six years.

The global copper market was expected to swing into a surplus in 2014 for the first time in four years, but a ban on ore exports from Indonesia and lower-than-expected metal production in China has curbed supply.

Reflecting investor optimism over copper prices, hedge funds and money managers switched the copper market into a net long position in the latest week, the CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed

LME zinc closed at $2,217 a tonne, having earlier hit a high of $2,219.50 a tonne, its highest since mid-February 2013. It closed at $2,185 on Friday.

Zinc outperformed other metals for June, with gains of more than 7 percent, also boosted by tight supply.

Reflecting distress in the spot market, cash zinc prices moved to a premium against three-month contracts on Monday for the first time in a month.

Zinc in the West has been supported by deteriorating ore grades and the closure of big mines. The story is not so bullish in Asia, one trader said, given that higher LME prices mean it is no longer profitable to import into China.

Tin closed at $22,545 a tonne, having earlier hit a low of $21,850 a tonne, its weakest since late January this year. It closed at $22,300 on Friday.

Indonesia's biggest tin miner PT Timah reported on Monday a 25 percent fall in first-quarter net profit, hurt by lower tin prices.

Aluminium closed at $1,883.50 a tonne from a last bid of $1,884 on Friday, lead at $2,173 a tonne from $2,161 and nickel at $19,040 a tonne from $18,920. (Source : Reuters)

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